These rankings are a definitive list of the order of teams most likely to win the premiership this year. It takes into account recent performance but is always looking at the big picture, so may be less sensitive to change than other rankings you see. Obviously every team is perfectly placed, so if you would like to tell me how much you agree with me then drop a comment below or find me on twitter @Doee48. Instead of discussing the teams themselves I will be microanalysing a certain theme every week. *I will now just be going in depth with 9/18 teams each week, unfortunately this is because I don't have the time to write for all 18 teams but it does mean I can be more detailed with each one. Teams written about will be rotated week to week.
1. Collingwood (-)
The Pies may be the most aggressive team in defence we have seen in a very long time. They love to squeeze up the ground, get in the ball carriers face and force a turnover, rather than sitting back. By doing this it means when they force the turnover they have numbers around the ball and can launch their explosive free flowing attack. This video is a perfect example of that.
As soon as Graham gets the ball he is SWAMPED by 4 Pies defenders all closer to him than any Richmond players. This pressure forces him to cough up the ball and as soon as Collingwood get it they go. Once they win the ball, out of the 4 players they have swarming Graham, 3 of them are able to chain handballs together before any Richmond players can even get to the contest. This allows Adams to release the ball to their runners before the Richmond players can get to the contest and from there the Pies are off and gone.
The downside of this is shown here. Collingwood players are all trying to come forward to defend. If you freeze the frame after the Dangerfield kick, Collingwood have 4 players between Danger and where the ball is headed and the Cats have one. However once the ball gets past this ring it becomes a 5v2 in the Cats favour. They get out the back and Henry gets a regulation set shot. This was exposed again last Thursday Night. By my count the Lions had 6 goals scored from the goal square, all a result of getting out the back of the Pies press. It's a high risk/high reward way to play which is why so often we see Collingwood games have clutters of goals scored to either team.
2. Melbourne (-)
See the * at the start.
3. Geelong (-)
The Cats have two ways they try and dominate games. Firstly with clearance. Last year they ranked 2nd in the comp for clearances, however this year they were sitting down at 18th before this week. Yesterday in the second half they flat out annihilated the Hawks from stoppage. They had 25 clearances to the Hawks 11. That is a good old fashioned spanking. As a result the Cats were able to kick 15 goals to 1 with many of them in the 3rd quarter coming from a centre clearance win. By winning clearance the Cats are able to score quickly and if they don't score they have territory and can set up their elite aerial defenders in positions to stop the ball getting past them. The Cats midfielders often have lower time on ground in comparison with other teams as their focus is solely on winning clearance opposed to getting lots of touches around the ground.
The other way they dominate games is through the middle of the ground. The Cats nearly always have protection through the middle of the ground. If you try and come through there to score you are in almighty trouble.
As soon as Coleman gets the ball pause the video. You will see 3 Cats from all directions bearing down on him. This forces a loopy handball to Bailey. Next thing I want to point out is the player tackling Bailey. Would Jake Kolodjashnij normally be matched up on Bailey? No. However whenever the Cats go forward, one of their key defenders will take off challenging the forward to go with them (and clearly in this case whoever Kolo was on decided not to chase so Bailey had too). Once the ball gets into the Cats forward line they park themselves in the middle of the ground. This ensures not only do the Cats have more numbers in the middle of the ground, they also have an aerial advantage. In this instance the aerial advantage isn't needed, Kolodjashnij comes forward to enable the turnover and the Cats go back inside 50 and score. This is a perfect example of why last year the Cats were the best team at converting turnovers into score. Take them on up the middle of the ground and you are in trouble.
4. Carlton (+1)
See * at the start
5. Sydney (-1)
I believe I remember reading last year that the Swans had the most efficient ball movement from D50 to A50 in AFL history. Unfortunately we can't confirm this statistically #freethestats or even use stats to get an idea of how they are going this year. We can look at their list to get an understanding, Blakey, Stephens, Lloyd, Gulden, Mcinerneny, Florent, Mills and Campbell are all seriously good users of the footy. The last play against Port Adelaide gives a pretty good idea of how swift they can be (yes this isn't the best example as Port are folding back to defend, but nonetheless bare with me!).
Not a whole lot to breakdown with the video, just a good way to show how quickly they can move the ball from their defensive end to attacking end.
One concern for the Swans early in the year similar to the Cats is that they are no longer winning clearance. Last year the Swans were the 3rd most dominant team in clearances however are languishing down at 13th this year. The reason this is an issue for the Swans is, that by prioritising elite kicks you may be undermining other areas of the game. If the ball starts coming into your backline with more regularity, and under less pressure, all of a sudden you're backline is up against it. Really unsure how I feel about them this year.
6. St Kilda (+2)
See the * at the start
7. Brisbane Lions (-)
Thou shall not run with or handball the ball. A couple of mind blowing stats for the Lions. They have had 2 running bounces all season. 2! Last year they had 67 for the season. To put that in perspective the Saints have already had 45. The Lions also had the highest kick to handball ratio of any team in the AFL last year, and this year have the least amount of handballs of any team. They are yet another team that clearances are imperative for. Last year they led the league in clearances and are doing so again this year. Across their 4 games so far this year they have won both games when winning the clearance battle and lost both when losing the clearance battle. One of the key ways they win these clearances in through a Big O spike!
By doing this he's able to clear the initial contest and get the Lions immediately moving forward on the front foot. It can result in less tiki taka handballs around a stoppage as when players get the ball they are already heading towards goal which could partially explain the Lions low handball numbers.
8. Western Bulldogs (+1)
See * at the start
9. Adelaide Crows (+2)
The Crows are registering a scoring shot from 51% of their inside 50s. That is an unbelievably high number and is clearly the best conversion rate in the competition. How are they doing this? The first aspect is that they are so good at locking the ball inside 50.
This pressure is absolutely exceptional. Fremantle have 3 possessions under extreme duress, and while the way the ball falls after the last smother is a token of good fortune, you make your own luck and with pressure that good, things are bound to happen.
The other aspect is the smarts surrounding their entries inside 50.
This is EXCEPTIONAL in three parts. First of all the body work by Rankine is as good as it gets. Secondly the kick by Soligo is so perfect. Instead of demanding Rankine lead at him he kicks it to his advantage making the mark relatively straightforward. They got a similar goal with Tex in the first quarter. Speaking of Tex, how often would you see the big forward lead up the back of Rankine and not allow this to happen? Very often. As soon as he realises the kick is going to Izak he checks his run to allow Rankine to take the mark with no pressure from behind. Teamwork like this is what wins you games. If they beat Carlton on Thursday they will soar up these rankings.
10. Tigers (-4)
Fast and ferocious is the way they want to move the ball. They have tempered this approach slightly as it left them open to goals coming fast the other way (they were one of the worst teams in the competition at defending turnovers last year), but golly when it works its good to watch.
The video doesn't show the full extent of this chain as it started from a kick in. This run and gun style is their preferred ball movement. At the moment they are well down on cattle, but not all of that can be excused. For as much as their ball movement is exceptional, this clearance work is bang average.
This isn't a shot at Richmond or any individual players- I could find clips of every club doing the same, but its happening a concerning amount with the Tigers. They let the Bulldogs (Macrae and Bont) own the defensive side of the stoppage. As soon as the ball gets tapped, Taranto needs to be aware of this and follow Macrae, instead he gets caught ball watching, Bont has done the body work on Hopper, Macrae is off and gone and no one is stopping Naughton when he is running and jumping at a footy kicked to his advantage.
11. Bombers (+1)
See * at the start
12. Fremantle (-2)
Their game style has probably received as much coverage as any team lately. It is slowwwww. The Crows clamped down on them playing this way however and the results were ah, not good. Instead of chipping it around 6 times, the Crows made them go long down the line and kept winning the footy at ground level. There was times however Freo did have success when the ball hit the ground.
Amiss does tremendously here. Not only is he the one to get the ball to ground level, he gets first hands on it and from this the process to scoring a goal is straight forward. If teams aren't going to let the Dockers play the way they want too (whether that way is a successful game style is a whole other issue), then they simply need more fight like this at ground level. Longmuir lamented their lack of appetite around the contest, and for the most part it was terrible. There's plenty there for the Dockers, the clearances have improved a lot the last 2 weeks, meaning that they should be able to start controlling territory a bit more but they need to find the fight at ground level very quickly.
13. Port Adelaide (-)
See the * at the start
14. Kangaroos (+1)
See the * at the start
15. Gold Coast (-1)
See the * at the start
16. GWS
The Giants have their struggles but the way they want to play is clear for all to see. They are incessant on handballing to players running past. This creates that illusion of the 'orange tsnumai'.
They win the ball in the initial contest and boom before you know it players are streaming through the middle of the ground. It's no suprise that Kingsley came from the Tigers where we often see them doing similar things. Unfortunately for the Giants there are a lot of other things to work on, but they at least have something to work with in regards to the ball movement.
17. Eagles (-)
See the * at the start
18. Hawks (-)
At first they played complete kamikaze football going into the middle with absolutely 0 regard for whether or not it was a good option. That clearly wasn't working, so we saw a significant shift against the Roos. They took a whopping 140 marks as they went the other direction- we aren't going to kick to a contest unless we have no other option. They tried to play this way again against the Cats and unfortunately it uh, didn't work. The Cats were super aggressive in their press, not giving the Hawks this option (they only had 69 marks this week). Here is a perfect example of this.
As soon as Moore marks this he immediately tries to go Ward to start this chippy chippy stuff, and also to release them that side of the ground. Unfortunately the Cats are aware of it and clamp it straight away.
Cheers everyone, all credits to the AFL for the videos I used (pls don't copyright me, I'm helping to educate myself and everyone else on what's happening!)
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