These rankings are a definitive list of the order of teams most likely to win the premiership this year. It takes into account recent performance but is always looking at the big picture, so may be less sensitive to change than other rankings you see. Obviously every team is perfectly placed, so if you would like to tell me how much you agree with me then drop a comment below or find me on twitter @Doee48. Instead of discussing the teams themselves I will be microanalysing a certain theme every week. *I will now just be going in depth with 9/18 teams each week, unfortunately this is because I don't have the time to write for all 18 teams but it does mean I can be more detailed with each one.
1. Collingwood (-)
Okay maybe I should preface this here that these may not be the best goals, but in some cases they might be the most interesting. Let's take a look at this forward 50 stoppage goal for the Pies.
Before we get into what went wrong for the Crows let's look at what the Pies did well.
Pretty clearly the Pies hit zone is Sidebottom who is standing completely on his own, and unfortunately for the crows that's exactly where the ball goes despite ROB winning the tap. Ginnivan hits the spot with speed and is able to get the ball moving towards goal, meanwhile Sidey has the smarts to not get into Ginnivan's space and interrupt his run. From here we see what makes Mihocek such a good player. He thrives on these opportunistic goals and does a terrific job staying goaliside and capitalising on a 50/50 chance once he gets boot to ball.
From the Crows perspective this is a genuine shambles. Sholl appears to be Sidebottom's opponent, and he has parked himself at the back of the stoppage. First of all, to not go man on in a D50 stoppage is exceptionally risky and if Ginnivan hadn't got the ball, Sidey certainly would have. Also, he's not far enough back to impact at the top of the square, or close enough to the contest to roll up and interrupt Ginnivans kick, rather he is just in no man's land. ROB hitting the ball directly to Pies hit zone is also a bad move, and Butts just has to get that through for a rushed behind on the line. Hinge does well enough to follow Ginnivan through heavy traffic and effect the snap, but unfortunately his team mates let him down. Stuff like this loses games.
2. Melbourne (-)
*See bold at start
3. Geelong (-)
Ummm Jezza. Your allowed to kick set shots from outside 50, your allowed to kick snaps from the boundary, your allowed to take hangers, but mate if you start doing this we may as well stop the comp now.
This is flat out RIDONKILOUS!!!!! The step on Parish is tastier than a 3am kebab, then the stiff arm and composure to go wambambang from 55 is just glorious. Shoutout to Blicavs for the tap, and well if I'm being honest Jezza just does the rest. Clearly this is a set play for the Cats, and i don't think Jezza's direct opponents will ever make the mistake of not following him up to the stoppage again. The tackling effort from Parish is poor and McGrath needed to react earlier to try and come smother but let's not get bogged down on the negatives on this one. Unbelievable stuff.
4. Brisbane (-)
Bet you don't have to guess this one?
Before I get into the dazzling delight of Will's goal, I want to propose a theory. Ashcroft is on the move the whole time at the stoppage and is almost jogging on the spot before charging into the spot that the Big O taps the ball. This is clearly where Big O intended to tap it, so let me ask a question. Is Dunkley coming under the footy and sucking his opponent with him, leaving the space behind for Ashy intentional? If he was to stay still that space would be clogged and the goal would have never happened, and Oscar was clearly always hitting it there so I really think this is a F50 play for the Lions.
And yeah, nice goal Will. Nice goal.
5. St Kilda (-)
*See bold at start
6. Adelaide (+1)
*See bold at start
7. Bulldogs (+1)
*See bold at start
8. Port Adelaide (+3)
*See bold at start
9. Carlton (-)
I promise a video is coming!!!
10. Sydney (-4)
The challenge of rotating teams every week is sometimes you go multiple spots with breakdowns and multiple spots without them. Anyway, let's take a look under the hood here.
The video kept cutting it off and I couldn't work out why, but take my word for it that the strength through the hips of Warner is so damn good here. Typically these days what players/teams do after breaking a tackle is try and keep the ball moving forward, to create that surge effect (just think of what Richmond did so well for 4 years). The Swans do not do this. They are a team of elite kicks, and here instead of barging forward, Warner goes back to Lloyd whose positioned himself perfectly as the anchor. He receives the ball, sees what he has coming at him and pulls the trigger on a classic 30m Jake Lloyd hit. Then Logan McDonald this is just a bit silly to be honest. He takes about 5 steps (with half of them being in the opposite direction), then just let's rip from 60 out and snags it. He's been a shining light so far this year for the Swans.
11. Essendon (-1)
As an unnamed ex Bulldogs player once said to me, "ya gotta give it to him, he was actually pretty good at footy", without going into the context of that quote 😉 newsflash, Jake is still pretty good at footy! But there was way more that happened in the lead up to this goal thats worth mentioning
First of all the bleeding obvious- good centering kick from Weideman.
Now the debate- does Phillips try and hit this to Nick Martin? The open hand suggests he certainly is trying to guide the ball to a certain spot, and the lack of a second arm means without question he wasn't trying to mark the ball. I think he glimpses Martin and tries to drop it in his path.
Pressure makes diamonds- yes this is average at best from Duncan, but perceived pressure does funny things and the Dons are there to swoop on the mistake
Treading water- Not too much to breakdown from Shiel and Phillips, good fundamental stuff. The toe tapping Stringer is what I love here. As soon as he realises Shiel is going to handball to Phillips he starts treading water, knowing if he goes to early he will be past Phillips before he has the ball and if he waits too long the big fella won't know what to do. Instead he times his run perfectly and the result is *mwa.
12. GWS (+4)
Okay we are going to breakdown this one in 4 acts
First of all I want us to watch Tom McCartin. If your going to be the loose at the back of the stoppage you HAVE to impact it. I totally understand he doesn't want to get sucked forward and leave space for a giants player to come forward, but when everyone else is man on man, this isn't as much as a worry, so you can be more aggressive. I'm being very stiff, and it's probably on the set up of teams more, but when you're going to have a loose man at a stoppage you cannot afford to lose under any circumstances surely you try and make that player your best stoppage player, like hmm I don't know the stoppage player in your team whose standing on the goal line?
Next Toby Greene- as soon as the ball goes up he runs towards Cogs and O'Halloran, potentially trying to set a block (its hard to tell as the camera cuts it off). In the chaos he loses Florent who gets sucked under the footy, and then boom Toby is out the back by himself.
Himmelberg- does so well to not let Ladhams engage him, get to the drop of the ball, keep playing the footy and you've gotta assume he hears the voice of Toby out the back.
Campbell- I think he potentially calls the switch with Florent between O'Halloran and Toby, but unfortunately he doesn't follow through the switch. He gets caught ball watching the contest instead of pressing up to Cogs and Toby. Small decisions have big impacts.
13. Fremantle (-)
I don't have a whole lot to breakdown with this one but I just wanted to make sure this didn't get lost in the wash.
Michael Walters take a bow, that is EXTRAORDINARY! He does what all good small forwards do, even when it looks like Brayshaw is going to take the mark he stays active in the game and hits the drop of the ball at pace making it harder to tackle him. Harris Andrews learns this the hard way as Walters slips out of his grip like a fish and that's me done, I'm off to watch the replay of that again!
14. Gold Coast (-)
*See bold at start
The Suns have averaged 122 marks per game in their last 3, but in rounds 1-4 this was at 75 per game. This is a clear and discernible game style shift from the suns. Load up on their fantasy/supercoach guys!
15. Richmond (-3)
*See bold at start
16. North Melbourne (-1)
Yeahhhhhh I was pulling teeth here but I found one!
Shout out to the Bull! Off with a foot injury he fought through and played half decent in the end. Under almost no pressure this was a great decision. We get a nice long shot from the broadcast and you can see the coverage Melbourne have in the pocket. The defenders all set up for the dump kick into the strong side (side the ball is on), but unfortunately for them there is absolutely no pressure on Ziebell. This means he can take his time to realise he shouldn't kick there, look inside and spot up Shiels.
17. Hawthorn (+1)
Breuuuuuuuuuuuuest
Will get into the Hawks in a minute but this poor from Bulldogs involved. The general rule of thumb as a defender is you either need to impact the contest by marking it, or clearing it from the drop zone with a spoil. O'Brien flies and gets a futile fist in as the ball drops dead into drop zone for Brockman. Jones on the other hand, completely misreads the contest and has 0 impact on it, meaning once it hits ground level the Hawks have the outnumber and do the rest. A nice handball chain, and Luke Bruest has probably kicked 300 goals like that in his career.
18. West Coast (-1)
*See bold at start
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