These rankings are a definitive list of the order of teams most likely to win the premiership this year. It takes into account recent performance but is always looking at the big picture, so may be less sensitive to change than other rankings you see. Obviously every team is perfectly placed, so if you would like to tell me how much you agree with me then drop a comment below or find me on twitter @Doee48. Instead of discussing the teams themselves I will be microanalysing a certain theme every week.
*Only half the teams get a video breakdown due to time constraints on myself, sorry :( I do try and spread out who gets written about but often it will just be teams from games I attend/watch attend. If you have questions about a team I missed, then find me on twitter as mentioned above.
Theme for this week is a bit off Broadway, unfortunately the AFL app on my phone is crashing everytime I try and make a video landscape, so am limited to just the highlight videos up on YouTube :(
Anyway, this week we are diving into how teams like to move the ball when exiting a contest!
1. Collingwood
The Party Pies (sorry), are one of the master exponents of moving the ball via the forward handball. So often they swarm the contest, gain posession, and instead of looking to find a mark, if the chance is there then they absolutely go.
As we touched on last week, a common approach for teams defence is to come forward to defend. After De Goey releases the forward handball to Adams, he has Whitfield bearing down on him. The power of the forward handball is that if you get past the last man of this aggressive defensive wave, you often find someone in space. This is the case here as Adams is able to give the ball to the opponent Whitfield left (Mitchell), who then is acres of space to pick out a target as there is no more Giants left in the chain of coming forward to defend.
2. Melbourne (-)
See * at start
3. Brisbane (+1)
If the Pies like to move the ball with forward handball chains, the Lions uhhh, do not. They rank dead last in the comp for handballs, much preferring to clear congestion by foot, rather than flicking it around by hand. This works well with athletic forwards like Hipwood and Daniher, as it gives them the chance to run and jump at the ball with green grass infront of them, opposed to having a wall of defenders that have rolled back.
This here is a pretty good example. When Starcevich gains posession of the ball, he has options all over the place to feed with a handball. Instead he just (for lack of a better word), hacks it forward, but safe with the knowledge his forwards have front position and are anticipating such a kick. The ball heads in the direction of Hipwood, who has that front position and is able to easily to take an almost an uncontested mark with no one in front of him.
4. Geelong (-1)
See * at start
5. Bulldogs (+1)
Again we get to see a different strategy to what has come before. While the Pies move the ball from contests via forward handballs, and the Lions by foot, the Dogs much prefer quick sharp handballs until they can release a good ball user on the outside. A prime example of this can be seen below.
Daniel gets the ball in heavy congestion, and is able to use his nous to clear that initial contest with a handball to Macrae. Once Macrae gets the ball, he is able to sense that due to the number of Carlton players around the contest that there must be space somewhere. In this instance if he was a Collingwood player you'd likely see Macrae give the hands to Arty Jones (maybe not the best example as he is under pressure), or just from a strategic standpoint, Scott would be higher up the ground ready for a handball. On the other hand, if Macrae was a Lion he very likely would have thrown the ball on the boot to clear the contest. Alas, the last time I checked Macrae is a Bulldog, so as mentioned, he senses the space, and in the space finds one of the best kicks in the team waiting to pull the trigger. This isn't a commentary on what ball movement strategies are superior, moreso its an analysis of the various ones we see.
6. Adelaide (+1)
See * at start, and yes this weekend is a battle for 5th in the rankings!
7. St Kilda (-2)
Whilst being notoriously stingy to score against (until the weekend), the Saints have shown the capacity at times to absolutely launch from contests. This is likely due to the personell they have available. By moving the ball quickly from a contest, they are able to capitalise on the foot speed of guys like Gresham, Higgins and Butler, instead of relying on some less accomplished key position players.
I wanted to include this video as it shows an interesting contrast in the risk/reward of the forward handball. The Crows attempt to go forward with this, however Phillipou is able to cut it off. Once he intercepts, as the momentum of the crows players is all going the other direction it creates a sliver of space for him. The ball is eventually moved forward by hands until it hits the grass. This then is a perfect example of the risk of coming forward to defend. Milera comes flying at the ball but is unable to do so. As we highlighted earlier, once the ball gets past the last man in the forward defense chain, it releases players into significantly more than a sliver of space. This therefore, is the reward of the forward handball. That was a lot of times writing forward. On we go!
8. Port Adelaide (-)
See * at start. Beat Melbourne this week and it won't matter who wins the battle of 5th in Ballarat, it'll be Port there.
9. Fremantle (+4)
This doesn't really hit the team wide focus, but if there's one thing I love ruckmen doing it's grabbing the ball out of the ruck! When you have a clear advantage of where the ball is dropping, why on earth would you tap it? Grabbing it means one of two things happen.
You get tackled and there's a repeat stoppage because you now need prior opportunity
See below
Okay this doesn't happen every time. But what does happen is that you get significant territory. The goal of a stoppage is to get the ball in your direction, and by grabbing it out of the ruck and kicking forward you can guarantee this. If you try and tap it, then you need to nail the tap, the rover has to be in the right place at the right time and they need to navigate through often heavy traffic before kicking.
In this instance Darcy gets it forward where Freo have one on one's everywhere and they are able to reap the rewards of this.
10. Sydney (-1)
See the * at the start
11. Carlton (-1)
You're not going to learn more about how Carlton move the ball from anything I write, when there are resources like what Ricky Mangidis (@rickm18 on twitter), has put together. This is a sensational breakdown of the Blues ball movement https://theshinboner.com/2023/05/11/how-sluggish-ball-movement-is-holding-carlton-blues-back-game-style-michael-voss/?amp=1
They were again wrapped with similar issues against a pretty suffocating Bulldogs defensive structure but they did show signs of promise.
This whole chain is set into motion by Nic Newman recognising he has one of the best 1 on 1 players in the comp in a 1v1 at half forward. He pins the ears back and gets it there as fast as he can and from there the Carlton crumbers do the rest. It does make you wonder why this doesn't happen more often with the Blues.
12. Gold Coast (+2)
See the * at the start
13. Essendon (-2)
See the * at the start
14. Richmond (+1)
The creators of the forward handball. The Tigers trademarked the forward swarm back in 2017 and haven't looked back since. On Friday Night we saw it in return in glorious fashion.
This is intoxicating, swashbuckling ball movement that when it is up and running is almost impossible to stop! The wave of numbers overwhelms the Cats defenders eventually releasing the Tigers on their merry way. Special shoutouts to Ben Miller for standing up in the tackle, getting the hands free and releasing Baker, and a special shoutout to Baker for kicking to the advantage of Cotchin on his opposite foot.
15. GWS (-3)
People love to talk about the Orange Tsunami, and it's definitely been back in smaller doses this year. Opposed to the forward handball, the wave is much more centred on always giving the ball to people moving forwards. This can mean with forward handballs, but can also mean sideways and backward handballs.
The tsunami is renowned for starting at halfback, but here we see how well it can work at contest. Cadman releases a flying Bedford, who is able to just get it off to a flying O'Halloran, who then gives the first forward handball in the chain to a flying Finn who salutes with a goal.
16. Hawthorn (+1)
See the * at the start
17. North Melbourne (-1)
See the * at the start
18. West Coast
Honestly, I haven't seen enough of West Coast to be comfortable labelling them with a specific ball movement strategy when leaving contests but it does seem to be a lot more aggressive than in years gone by. They used to love dishing the ball backwards then chipping sideways to find a mark and control posession that way. These days you see much more aggressive handballs at contests.
Petrucelle is able to slip Swallow who kind of gets caught between coming forward to defend and ball watching, allowing Clark to release the easy handball to Petrucelle. He then galavants towards the big sticks and kicks a really nice goal. It all started from the aggressive forward handball, and special mention to Clark for his efforts to run and provide a block at the end.
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