These rankings are a definitive list of the order of teams most likely to win the premiership this year. It takes into account recent performance but is always looking at the big picture, so may be less sensitive to change than other rankings you see. Obviously every team is perfectly placed, so if you would like to tell me how much you agree with me then drop a comment below or find me on twitter @Doee48. Instead of discussing the teams themselves I will be microanalysing a certain theme every week. *I will now just be going in depth with 9/18 teams each week, unfortunately this is because I don't have the time to write for all 18 teams but it does mean I can be more detailed with each one.
This week we are looking at one individual moment of brilliant decision making from 9 players from last weekend!
1. Collingwood (-)
*See bold at start
2. Melbourne (-)
To start with we will look at one of the biggest names who moved teams last offseason.
On first glance you might be asking what's so good about that? The crumb and finish are all great, but to me it's the decision making process by Grundy I love. When he first comes into vision you can see him pillocking towards the footy. You can almost see the lightbulb moment when he realises he won't be able to impact the contest, so he decides to stay down. How often in that case would you see a big forward crash into the back of Chol and give away a 50m/free kick? There is absolutely a place for that physicality in our game, but by playing the %s and knowing he would only harm his team by flying Grundy stays down. He then reaps the rewards of his intuition. Brilliant stuff.
3. Geelong (-)
*See bold at start
4. Brisbane (-)
I wrote about the Lions last week but this was SO BLOODY GOOD, I just had to show it to you. I want you to watch the video before you read the rest of my writing and guess what the moment was.
Sharp, Gunston, Cameron all brilliant, but it's none of them. Watch it one more time.
Joey Daniher this belongs in the Louvre next to the Mona Lisa. I internally scream everytime I see this, I genuinely am so impressed by it. As he approaches the back of the pack, you can just about see him recognise that Sharp has a Pagan's Paddock of space to the outside. Then when he flies he knows he won't be able to take a mark, instead he goes up with the fist and attempts to guide the ball into the direction of Sharp. What makes it more impressive is that he almost loses control of his body in the air, like a mogul skier whose knees come too far apart. The ability to guide the ball with his fist to hit Sharp in stride is similarly outstanding. This may be my favourite piece of individual brilliance from the season so far (yes I know Charlie Dixon did a similar thing to Rioli X2 last week, but they weren't in packs when he was horizontal in the air!).
5. St Kilda (-)
*See bold at start
6. Western Bulldogs (+1)
Once again we get a chance to look at some fantastic decision making. This time however, it's some fantastic decision making under serious pressure from the situation of the game.
Arty Jones take a bow (roll the credits). Late in games we so often see young players panic when going forward as if they can hear that Under 12s coach screaming GET IT LONGGGGG. In this instance, Arty has all the composure of a certain player with a basketball background. He first looks forwards and identifies the 2 on 1. He correctly decides not to kick the ball to this. He then looks to the outside and sees his teammate being well covered. Nope can't go there. He then looks back. Nothing on there too! In the process of doing this he has the guile to evade a Haynes tackle, and almost stop dead on his feet in heavy traffic. If that doesn't remind you of someone then I don't know what will! In the meantime, Naughton has been able to get himself deep enough that he can turn and lead up at the ball rendering the 2v1 Arty saw before ineffective. Once he sees this he correctly kicks to Naughton, who goes on to slot the sealer. When I first saw Arty play in a match sim, I thought this kid will do something every now and then that makes you go yep, that's why he's in the AFL. This was his yep moment.
7. Adelaide (-1)
*See bold at start
8. Port Adelaide (-)
Interested in seeing what you should always be doing at forward 50 stoppages as a small forward, and what you should never do as a defender?
Junior Rioli is exhibit A, and Mason Redman is exhibit B. Let's quickly start with Redman so we can finish on a positive. You need to try and never let your opponent get goalside at a stoppage, because well thats dangerous. Unfortunately, that is quite hard to do, but what you do need to is make sure that if they get goalside you are sweating on them (think those videos of Michalanney from a few weeks ago). What you shouldn't do, is get caught ball watching and let your man keep streaming towards goal.
What Rioli does on the other hand is great. He gets goalside of his direct opponent, and keeps moving at a forward motion with speed. This means that if he gets a chance to get the ball, he is already going towards goal and moving quick enough he might get enough time to have a shot. He has so much time that he can sell the candy (he honestly might be the best candy seller in the comp), and then kick the right foot banana.
9. Sydney (+1)
I was at this game and had the pleasure of watching this unfold live. I was worried the TV broadcast wouldn't capture the extent of this bow-worthy moment but it does!
Last week I gave Braeden Campbell a bit of a clip, this week he gets a pat on the back. Players are always taught to 'come forward" to defend. This means that if a player in front of you has the ball and you have no team-mates between you and them, then it is your job to leave your man and come at the bloke with the footy putting frontal pressure on them. This is what happens all the time around the ground, but to have the intestinal fortitude to leave your opponent whose heading towards the goal square and come forward nearly 50m to defend is exceptional. He executes it perfectly, nailing Mihocek just as he realises he turns towards goal, and in the process saves a certain goal. Well done.
10. Carlton (-1)
This one may not qualify as an act of brilliant decision making, but it is a perfect example of two of the previous topics we have talked about.
Firstly, this decision by Cincotta to 'stay in the game', is a great example of Grundy not flying earlier. If he switches off like Bailey here when the ball is headed towards the boundary line, then he is no chance of impacting the contest. We also see another great example of coming forward to defend. If Neale was able to maintain possession, there was no one between he and Cincotta meaning Cincotta was the man who had to come forward to defend Neale. Therefore, by staying in the game and coming forward to defend, he is able to capitalise on the loose ball and get a quick one two to clear the stoppage. Not a groundbreaking decision, but a good one nonetheless.
11. Essendon (-)
*See bold at start
12. GWS (-)
*See bold at start
13. Fremantle (-)
*See bold at start
14. Gold Coast (-)
I strongly believe this one was intentional, and for the sake of the piece, let's assume it was intentional.
Firstly, Rowell does a great job of 'owning the outside'. An old footy coach of mine used to describe this to us as, push the opposition 'into the shit'. Rowell does this as he pushes Viney under the contest and is able to control the outside. This bit was definitely intentional, and I'm 99% sure the next bit was too. Once Rowell gets the ball, he has the wits to not bomb it long to a likely outnumber, but to try and pick off a pass. He sees Humphrey streaming at him in the middle and backs himself to drill a left foot kick to him. The ball gets there after spinning horizontally, and it is the start of a chain that resulted in a chance to tie the game. The stoppage work by Rowell is magnificent and the following decision is just as good.
15. Richmond (-)
This one is actually a bad decision. This isn't a anti Richmond thing or anything, but something you see all the time and had me slamming the back of the chair in front of me at the G on Saturday.
The number one rule of having a shot at goal, is that you need to know your range. Bolton hits this pretty well, but at the end of the day he is trying to kick it 55m over people on the goal-line. The problem with this is that it's so easy for defenders to spoil through for a rushed behind, doesn't give your forwards a chance to mark the ball as they are trying to shepherd the ball, and takes your smalls out of it because it just gets punched through. Drop it to the top of square, give the big blokes a chance to run and launch at the ball, and bring your smalls into it at ground level. It's also a chance to make defenders sweat and potentially do something silly. Instead this kick is so easy to read and is a waste of an inside 50.
16. Hawthorn (+1)
*See bold at start
17. North Melbourne (-1)
*See bold at start
18. West Coast Eagles (-)
I deeply apologise for the portrait nature of this video but the damn app kept crashing anytime I tried to do landscape (despite working fine for every other video).
This may be not as much as a great decision, but I wanted to share it as its got to be the best handball we see this year. To hit that handball in stride whilst spinning past the outstretched arms of a couple of defenders is remarkable. This is the sort of stuff people pay money to come see, and unfortunately this year Kelly has been one of the only Eagles worth seeing.
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