AFL Fantasy Captains Round 2

Last week

Look, lets be honest for a moment here. Last week didn’t exactly go to plan. Sam Docherty (110) was a safe as houses VC option, and I reckon he couldn’t have done much more to make people second guess whether or not to take his VC score. Before the round, if I had of asked if you would be stoked with 110 from your captain, you would probably say no. But on the other hand, if I asked if you would be disappointed with that same score, again, the answer is probably no.

Personally, I’m a big believer in taking the runs on the board, over the risk of trying to be greedy. This week epitomised the reason for playing it safe and locking in a decent score. As of Friday morning last week, there was no conceivable possibility that either Rory Laird (57) or Josh Dunkley (77) would score less than the 110 that Doch put out. But here we are, after a number of people opted to be greedy, it backfired.

So, let’s take this as a lesson for the 2023 season. Runs on the board is key for our captaincy. There is no world when it is safe to chase a captains ceiling score when you have a reasonable VC score locked in. It is not worth risking 60+ points for a possible 20 point gain. When deciding whether it is a score to lock in, ask yourself, if your C scored that number for the round, would you be disappointed? If the answer is no, lock it in!

For me, I locked in the VC of Sam Docherty, and it turned out to be the right call. There was a moment where I considered taking a punt on LDU thinking a ceiling score was coming against The Eagles. Thankfully I held firm and saved myself a whopping 2 points.

In terms of my captain suggestions last week, I think the less said the better. But the great thing about footy, is that next week we have a chance to redeem ourselves! With LDU (108) being the highest scoring option of my top 5, I think that says all we need to say. Well done to all who backed Timmy T (123) with a VC last week – he is looking like a genuine captain option to start the year!

Vice Captains

Sam Docherty Vs Geelong	CTRL C + CTRL V. Rinse and repeat from last week. The AFL Head Office has gifted us a weekly dose of reliable VC options to start the season, and again Doch is our guy. He was really good last week, without setting the world on fire. He just did what he needed to do. The exciting part though, was the 73 point second half. Let’s hope he carries that into round 2. I was a little unsure when I first saw he is playing Geelong this week, until I remembered what Geelong let Nick Daicos (114) do last week. It will be interesting to see if Chris Scott allows Doch the same freedom this week, because if he does, I think we could be looking at a monster score here. When we also consider that John Noble (105) managed to go over 100, I think it’s fair to assume half backs might not struggle against the Cats in 2023.
Josh Dunkley Vs Melbourne	Maybe not the start we were all hoping for from the guy that many (myself included) are backing to be the number 1 scorer in the game this year. It’s hard to read into the scores from the Melbourne V Bulldogs game last week. For 1, Melbourne dominated the game, and I don’t see it coming quite so easy this week. Secondly, Bulldogs mids were okay, without being great. Bont (95) started like a house on fire, but faded hard, and Macrae (107) did the opposite, starting slow but building. Neither scored amazing, but both showed in patches of the game that midfielders can score against Melbourne. If there is one thing I can count on this week, it’s that we won’t see a repeat of the effort that Brisbane put out last week, and Dunkley will be leading the charge. He is a proud man, and will be as hungry as ever this week. I’m backing in a 40+ point first quarter from Dunks to set the tone, with 4+ tackles, too.
Tim Taranto Vs Adelaide	I don’t think many people will be without Doch and Dunkley, but if you don’t have any of the 3 above, you could wait for Timmy T, playing in the second game on Saturday. We have seen enough through pre season and round 1 to know that this guy and the Richmond system are just going to work, and work very well. He is their main man, and he loves to stuff his stats. 32 touches and 8 tackles last week, could have been more if he converted his 2 behinds. Is now a good time to mention how GWS mids fared against Adelaide last week? Tom Green (128) brought his own pill, Cogs (104) managed over 100 with only 1 tackle, and Josh Kelly (91) was on track for 110+ before his concussion.
Clayton Oliver Vs Brisbane	Clarry did what Clarry does last week. 124 thanks to 33 touches, 6 marks and 7 tackles. Funnily enough, he attended 83% of centre bounces, and didn’t play off half back at all. Are we surprised? No, of course we are not surprised that arguably the best one touch midfielder in the game played purely as a midfielder. It’s hard to know at this stage if Brisbane will be difficult to score against. Last weeks game against Port had a top score of 95. But who was responsible for the low scores? Port, who dominated most of the game? We will need a little more data to be confident on this. But, there are two things we can be confident of, and that is that Brisbane do not tag, and Melbourne will win the hit out count. And when Clayton Oliver doesn’t get tagged, and receives good service from his rucks, we know what the end result is.

Captains

GET ON

Andrew Brayshaw Vs North Melbourne	The only reason not to consider Andy B (114) last week was the tag threat. Strangely enough, that tag went to Serong (83). With the tag threat removed this week, this guy could be anything. Fremantle should be out to make a statement, and Brayshaw is their leader in the midfield. Add that to the fact he has managed 134 and 121 in his last two against NM, and both were at Optus, and owners are in for a treat this week.
Tim Taranto Vs Adelaide	This may be a cop out including him in both VC and C options, but I feel most VC’s will be used on either Doch or Dunks. If that’s the case, Timmy T should be considered as your fall back guy. After watching the GWS midfielders tear Adelaide apart, I’m a bit worried for Adelaide’s sake as to what this guy could put up this week.
Rory Laird Vs Richmond	This is a tough one. I wanted to put him at number 2, because I think he bounces back this week. He knows he was poor last week, and he wants to make amends. But looking at the numbers, he doesn’t love playing against Richmond. He has not scored over 100 since becoming a midfielder. 116 in 2019 was his last 100+ score against the Tigers, as a half back (which was the 3rd consecutive century, but we know about half backs v Richmond). I think he bucks the trend this week. I’m feeling a big bounce back coming, and he will have a minimum of 8 tackles as he tries to redeem himself. Anyone who jumps off this week, could regret that decision very quickly.
Zach Merrett Vs Gold Coast	Zach Merrett could not have impressed me more last week. In a game where I thought he would be completely tagged out of it by Finn Maginness, he worked through the tag to put up a triple figure score. And he didn’t tackle his way there, he managed 29 touches and 7 marks despite the tag (although most were in the second half after the tag was dropped). Credit where credit is due, because that is still a really good effort. This week, he should find things a little easier. Chad Warner (117) managed 30 disposals and 8 tackles against GC last week, and if he can do that, there is no telling what Zach Merrett can do. He did manage 131 against GC last year, but his 3 scores prior to that were all sub 100 – although it’s worth noting that the 131 is the only game at Marvel out of those, where they play this week. My only worry here, is that GC will be out to improve on their poor showing last week, and they will see Essendon as an opportunity to get a win on the board. I think that Zerrett can still put up a good score, despite that.
Bailey Smith Vs St Kilda	Picking a Bulldogs midfielder to be a captain option causes me more stress than it should. I feel like I need to have one of them here, because St Kilda are really not very good, and we all know what Dogs midfielders can do when they have things on their own terms. The other issue with St Kilda is the likely return of Marcus Windhager as a tagger. I am quite confident, though, that he will be going straight to Tom Liberatore to start the game. It is worth being cautious as he could move to any mid who gets off the chain during the night. I am eliminating Bont here, because he generally scores better in tougher games – he isn’t the guy to junk up in easy match ups (although his last 2 scores against St K of 140 and 138 say otherwise), and there is a possibility of him spending more time forward this week, with Lobb out and (potentially) Liam Jones out, which might move Sam Darcy to the backline – a big watch on WB team selections. Jack Macrae is the obvious option – he can junk it up with the best of them, but I’m just not sure he has earned back enough trust to be a captain option again. Adam Treloar was the only one to show a bit of ticker last week, but I’m not trusting him to do this consistently whilst not being one of the main cogs in the CBAs. Now I’m going to put my aggots on the line, and back in Bazlenka to be the guy this week.Last week didn’t fill me with a heap of confidence, but let’s remember he had an interrupted pre season and is still building.We all know the work rate on this guy, and I think his gut running will result in a whole heap of uncontested footy and +6s.

AVOID

Callum Mills Vs Hawthorn	For at least the short term, I think his captaincy days are over. It is looking more and more likely that he will remain on the outer at CBA’s – only 36% last week, with the Swans favouring the likes of Warner, Gulden, and Parker. Without the role security, we just can’t trust Mills as a Fantasy player, let alone a captain option.
Jack Steele Vs Western Bulldogs	I actually think Jack Steele could be okay this week. I just have no confidence in it I am a little nervous as to the Ross Lyon style working for his Fantasy scoring. It could be okay, and I’m not yet willing to change my Steele M2 prediction just yet, but I’m not confident after last week. Tread carefully if considering the Steele Captaincy. I will temper this with, I don’t think Steele will ever be bad – I think he is at worst, a consistent 105. I just think his ceiling games may be gone in the new game style. I hope I’m wrong though.
Rucks	All of them. They all have flags. They all have question marks remaining. All have questions relating to their match ups this week (see below). English the best of the lot, but not a captain option at the moment. Gawn a previous perma C, but can’t trust consistency with his split. Witts big score last week, but that’s out of the box, and relied on 50+ hit outs

The Lowdown

Player	For	Against	Projected Score
Sam Docherty	Geelong put no effort into Coll defenders last week. Looking at Carltons team, I can see Docherty playing some CBA minutes this week.	Do Geelong learn from allowing Daicos to do as he pleased last week?	125+
Josh Dunkley	Melbourne can give up points to inside mids (Libba 114) Doesn’t often string two bad games together Averages 109 v Melbourne, but that does include a 189	Disappointing first effort last week	120+
Lachie Neale	No tag coming from Melbourne	Is Lachie Neale really a captain option anymore?	100
Clayton Oliver	Loves padding stats Good ruck service	Potential Jarrod Berry tag?	115
Christian Petracca	Averages more v Brisbane than any other team. 81 in finals last year (played hurt and a lot forward), but 4 consecutive 100+ games prior to that	Has never gone 120+ v Brisbane	100-105
Max Gawn	Good start to the year Whilst missing CBA’s, did spend majority of time in the ruck Managed to score across all stat lines	Oscar McInerney is tough to score against Brisbane by far his worst team to score against (82 avg) Less than 50% CBA’s last week Even with majority ruck time, only 21 hit outs last week (career avg 34)	85-90
Rory Laird	He’s Rory Laird, he’ll bounce back	Tough to back someone in after a 57	125
Tim Taranto	Huge start to life as a Tiger last week 80% CBA’s GWS mids did as they pleased v Adelaide Last 4 v Ade: 94, 140, 112 (COVID adj.), 139	Do Adelaide improve? Better defensively? Playing at home?	125+
Marcus Bontempelli	Will be desperate for a better showing than last week Last 2 v StK: 140 and 138 (played forward and kicked 4.3) I think Bulldogs come out and win this well – even if forward, should get opportunity	Marcus Windhager tag threat Rory Lobb out – does Bont spend time forward? If Liam Jones misses, maybe Sam Darcy plays back – again, Bont more forward?	105-110
Bailey Smith	Last 2 v StK: 109 and 108 If Bont does spend more time forward, does Baz spend more time in the CBA’s? Building into season off interrupted pre season, better for the run last week?	Marcus Windhager tag threat 109 highest score v StK Slow start last week	120
Jack Macrae	Best of the big 3 last week Increase in CBA’s if Bont plays more forward?	Marcus Windhager tag threat	115
Tim English	Good start last week against the double headed monster Managed 22 hit outs v Gawndy, you would think that becomes his floor Sean Darcy had his way with RoMarsh last week	Rowan Marshall usually a tough match up, and matches up well against English (around the ground abilities) Best score v StK is 86, in 2019 Last year scored 58 in 88% TOG (Ryder only played 53% TOG, so matched up largely against RoMarsh)	105
Jack Steele	90% CBA’s 117 last year v WBD Fremantle’s style didn’t allow a lot of St K players to tackle, which limits Steele’s scoring ability More tackling opportunity v WBD	Tough start last week Bulldogs one of the hardest midfields to score against Does Ross’ new game style allow for spread and uncontested marking?	105-110
Rowan Marshall	The 107 in 2019 is the only time he has played WBD without Paddy Ryder	Poor start last week Only 1x 100+ game vs WBD, in 2019	105
Andrew Brayshaw	North unlikely to tag 85% CBA’s Last 2 v NM: 134 and 121		125+
Luke Davies-Uniacke	Zero tag threat 87% TOG last week Consistent 4 quarter game last week	Has never gone 100+ v Fremantle	110
Callum Mills		Might struggle to be a captain option this year with role – looks unlikely to be given a genuine mid role	90
Zach Merrett	107 last week v Finn Maginness tag Tag dropped at half time – 78 point second half GC conceded most points last week 88% TOG 131 last year vs GC	GC looking for a bounce back?	115+
Darcy Parish	84% CBA’s, 37 disposals GC conceded second most points last week	Zero faith in his consistency 37 disposals only resulted in 107 score, in a favourable match up Only 1x 100+ score v GC – 111 in 2021	95
Touk Miller	108 off no pre season games, with only 1 mark Essendon shouldn’t be a hard match up	Doesn’t love the Bombers – only 2x 100+ in his last 6 against them Essendon did play a free flowing game last week = less stoppages and opportunity for tackles and work in the contest	110
Jarrod Witts	BIG start last week	Never really been a captain option Relied on 50+ hit outs for his big score last week Bombers free flowing style will likely mean fewer stoppages – less tackles and less hit outs Only 1x 100+ score v Ess in 6 games	90
Tom Green	Currently, highest scoring midfielder in the game Soft match up v WCE this week No tag threat No mids to share the load with this week 86% TOG, 81% CBA’s Number 1 ‘hit-to’ every single time No WCE ruck = should have ruck/mid dominance	Not sure we trust him enough yet to whack a C on him, but I think this could be real big	120

My Plans:

To be honest, I’m not 100% sure at the moment. I considered the Dunkley VC, because I think he bounces back this week, but I see Docherty as more likely to hit a 140, so that’s where my VC will go.

If that fails, I’m considering a few options. The C could go straight to Dunkley, but if that fails, it ruins my whole weekend, and it’s not without risk. I am tempted to back my gut instinct in and have a punt on Bazlenka with the C, but again, there is a large element of risk with that. My final option, which is very tempting, is to jump on board the Timmy T train. I think he could be anything this week against Adelaide.

Most likely though, I’ll be going Docherty VC into Dunkley C. Maybe I’ll tweet out if that changes, or maybe I won’t, I’m too indecisive.

Twitter:

@Bomaroos